A 10-year wave energy resource assessment and trends of Indonesia based on satellite observations     

Amiruddin  Ribal Agustinus  Khaeruddin  Thamrin Sri Astuti 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(8):86-93

Wave energy resource assessment and trends around Indonesian's ocean has been carried out by means of analyzing satellite observations. Wave energy flux or wave power can be approximated using parameterized sea states derived from satellite data. Unfortunately, only some surface parameters can be measured from remote sensing satellites, for example for ocean surface waves: significant wave height. Others, like peak wave period and energy period are not available, but can instead be estimated using empirical models. The results have been assessed by meteorological season. The assessment shows clearly where and when the wave power resource is promising around Indonesian's ocean. The most striking result was found from June to August, in which about 30–40 kW/m(the 90 th percentile: 40–60 kW/m, the 99th percentile: 50–70 kW/m) wave power energy on average has been found around south of the Java Island. The significant trends of wave energy at the 95% level have also been studied and it is found that the trends only occurred for the extreme cases, which is the 99th percentile(i.e.,highest 1%). Wave power energy could increase up to 150 W/m per year. The significant wave heights and wave power have been compared with the results obtained from global wave model hindcast carried out by wave model WAVEWATCH III. The comparisons indicated excellent agreements.  相似文献   

RESEARCH ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF QUATERNARY ACTIVITIES OF SU-XI-CHANG FAULT          下载免费PDF全文

ZHANG Peng  ZHANG Yuan-yuan  XU Han-gang  LIU Jian-da  CHEN Jian-qiang  LI Li-mei  LI Jin-liang  GU Qin-ping  JIANG Xin 《地震地质》2019,41(5):1172-1184

Running across the urban areas of Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou, the NW-trending Su-Xi-Chang Fault is an important buried fault in Yangtze River Delta. In the respect of structural geomorphology, hilly landform is developed along the southwest side of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault, and a series of lakes and relatively low-lying depressions are developed on its northeast side, which is an important landform and neotectonic boundary line. The fault controlled the Jurassic and Cretaceous stratigraphic sedimentary and Cenozoic volcanic activities, and also has obvious control effects on the modern geomorphology and Quaternary stratigraphic distribution. Su-Xi-Chang Fault is one of the target faults of the project "Urban active fault exploration and seismic risk assessment in Changzhou City" and "Urban active fault exploration and seismic risk assessment in Suzhou City". Hidden in the ground with thick cover layer, few researches have been done on this fault in the past. The study on the activity characteristics and the latest activity era of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault is of great significance for the prevention and reduction of earthquake disaster losses caused by the destructive earthquakes to the cities of Changzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou. Based on shallow seismic exploration and drilling joint profiling method, Quaternary activities and distribution characteristics of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault are analyzed systematically. Shallow seismic exploration results show that the south branch of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault in Suzhou area is dominated by normal faulting, dipping to the north-east, with a dip angle of about 60° and a displacement of 3~5m on the bedrock surface. The north branch of the Su-Xi-Chang Fault in Changzhou area is dominated by normal faulting, dipping to the south, with a dip angle of about 55°~70° and a displacement of 4~12m on the bedrock surface. All breakpoints of Su-Xi-Chang Fault on the seismic exploration profiles show that only the bedrock surface was dislocated, not the interior strata of the Quaternary. On the drilling joint profile in the Dongqiao site of Suzhou, the latest activity of the south branch of Su-Xi-Chang Fault is manifested as reverse faulting, with maximum displacement of 2.9m in the upper part of Lower Pleistocene, and the Middle Pleistocene has not been dislocated by the fault. The fault acts as normal fault in the Pre-Quaternary strata, with a displacement of 3.7m in the Neogene stratum. On the drilling joint profile in the Chaoyang Road site of Changzhou, the latest activity of the north branch of Su-Xi-Chang Fault is manifested as reverse faulting too, with maximum displacement of 2.8m in the bottom layer of the Middle Pleistocene. The fault acts as normal fault in the Pre-Quaternary strata, with a displacement of 10.2m in the bedrock surface. Combining the above results, we conclude that the latest activity era of Su-Xi-Chang Fault is early Middle Pleistocene. The Su-Xi-Chang Fault was dominated by the sinistral normal faulting in the pre-Quaternary period, and turned into sinistral reverse faulting after the early Pleistocene, with displacement of about 3m in the Quaternary strata. The maximum magnitude of potential earthquake on the Su-Xi-Chang Fault is estimated to be 6.0.  相似文献   

Long‐term streamflow trends in Hawai'i and implications for native stream fauna     

Hannah M. Clilverd  Yin‐Phan Tsang  Dana M. Infante  Abigail J. Lynch  Ayron M. Strauch 《水文研究》2019,33(5):699-719

Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from ~400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57% of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22% of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90% and 8.28% per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna.  相似文献   

2012年唐山4.8级地震强震动记录特征及场地相关特性分析     

齐玉妍  孙丽娜  吕国军  李慧 《地震》2019,39(4):172-180

2012年5月28日河北省唐山市古冶区与滦县交界发生4.8级地震, 国家强震动台网中心在河北、 天津和北京的94个强震动台站记录到了本次地震的加速度。 本文给出了获取记录的强震动台站分布及强震动记录结果, 统计了强震动记录数量随震中距的变化, 给出了3个较小震中距台站记录到的加速度时程; 绘制了空间地震动峰值加速度等值线图及周期0.2 s、 2.0 s加速度反应谱值的等值线, 发现峰值加速度等值线与长周期加速度反应谱等值线极值分布具有明显地域差异, 分析认为是由于厚沉积层对长周期地震动具有放大作用造成的。 通过强震动记录与适用于本区的三个衰减关系对比, 分析了此次地震的峰值加速度衰减特征, 同时研究了周期0.2 s、 2.0 s加速度反应谱值的衰减特征, 周期2.0 s反应谱值随震中距的衰减与衰减关系能较好地对应, 然而在震中距100～130 km沉积层较厚的集中地区, 表现出了实际记录较衰减关系值偏大的现象, 认为同样是由于厚沉积层对地震动加速度反应谱长周期的放大作用导致的。 研究了震中距差别不大的情况下, 场地类型与沉积层厚度对反应谱特征周期的影响, 对比基岩台站与软弱地基土层台站的强震动记录反应谱, 发现软弱土层台站的土层对地震动有一定的放大作用, 导致中长周期地震动被放大, 对比位于沉积层较薄的隆起区台站与位于沉积层较厚的凹陷区台站强震动记录反应谱, 发现厚的沉积层不仅对反应谱长周期有放大的作用, 同时也会使得反应谱特征周期值变大。  相似文献   

新型装配式混凝土框架连接节点抗震性能试验     

张健新  张标  戎贤  杨洪渭 《地震工程与工程振动》2020,(2):164-170

为推广装配式混凝土框架结构的应用,提出3种不同的新型装配式钢筋混凝土框架中节点连接形式,进行低周往复荷载试验。对比各试件的破坏形态、滞回性能、刚度退化、累积耗能和节点剪切变形等抗震指标。研究结果表明:采用方钢管连接的装配式混凝土节点呈现梁端弯曲破坏,采用工字钢连接或对拉螺栓连接的节点呈现节点核心区剪切破坏。采用方钢管的连接形式既能改善节点核心区的破坏形态,又能提高其承载能力、变形能力、耗能能力和梁端转动能力,同时显著改善节点的滞回特性,减小核心区的剪切变形。在弹塑性和塑性变形阶段,采用方钢管连接形式的装配式混凝土节点的抗震性能优于工字钢连接和对拉螺栓连接的节点。此外,采用工字钢连接形式比对拉螺栓连接形式的节点具有更高的承载能力、耗能能力和较小的核心区剪切变形。  相似文献   

Numerical evaluation of soft inter‐slab joint in concrete‐faced rockfill dam with dual mortar finite element method          下载免费PDF全文

Mozhen Zhou  Bingyin Zhang  Chong Peng 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(5):781-805

Recently constructed concrete‐faced rockfill dams (CFRDs) often use soft inter‐slab joints to prevent axial compression‐induced extrusion damage in the concrete face. Due to the complexity of the multibody contact and the lack of information on the actual behavior of soft joints, it is highly challenging to numerically assess the effect of soft joints in CFRDs. In this paper, we present a numerical approach for the three‐dimensional modeling of CFRDs with hard and soft joints. A dual mortar finite element method with Lagrange multiplier is developed to treat the multibody contact in hard joints with impenetrability condition. The soft joint slab‐filler‐slab contact system is modeled using an equivalent contact interface approach, where the soft contact constraints are imposed using a perturbed Lagrange formulation. Through a series of laboratory tests, the mechanical behavior of soft joint is investigated. An extrusion model for the soft joint is presented and implemented in the dual mortar finite element method. The proposed numerical method is applied to the three‐dimensional analysis of Tianshengqiao‐1 CFRD. Despite the complex multibody contact and strong material and geometry nonlinearities in the CFRD, the proposed method is stable and capable of capturing salient characteristics of the CFRD. Numerical results show that in Tianshengqiao‐1, the employment of soft joints can effectively reduce the axial compression stress, thus greatly alleviating the risk of extrusion damage in the concrete face.  相似文献   

水文干旱多变量联合设计及水库影响评估   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

涂新军  杜晓霞  杜奕良  陈晓宏  黎坤 《湖泊科学》2018,30(2):509-518

基于东江流域博罗站月径流数据,采用游程理论提取水文干旱事件.选用Meta-Gaussian Copula函数,统计模拟水文干旱指标的多变量联合分布.采用Kendall联合重现期和最大可能权函数,设计给定联合超越重现期的水文干旱指标组合值,并定量评估水库径流调节作用对水文干旱多变量联合特征的影响.结果表明:东江流域水文干旱历时、强度和峰值的统计优选分布均为韦布尔分布.干旱指标之间具有较高的正相关性,Meta-Gaussian Copula能够很好地模拟水文干旱指标两变量和三变量联合分布.基于任意两个变量联合设计和三变量联合设计,干旱指标设计组合值位于同频位置附近,且同一个干旱指标设计值在不同变量组合之间差别较小.水库径流调节作用对于缓解东江流域水文干旱效果明显,同一组干旱指标的多变量联合超越重现期在水库影响下明显变大.联合超越重现期越小,水库对联合设计值的影响程度越大.根据目前水库运行模式,若要满足河道内最小管理流量目标,联合超越重现期10 a一遇的干旱历时、强度和峰值依然达到了约3.89~4.04月、7.20~7.97亿m3和2.99~3.12亿m3.  相似文献   

淮河流域洪水极值非平稳性特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

孙鹏  孙玉燕  张强  姚蕊  温庆志  王友贞  蒋尚明 《湖泊科学》2018,30(4):1123-1137

基于淮河流域9个水文站的月径流量数据,采用Pettitt非参数检验法、GAMLSS模型与洪水频率分析模型等方法,揭示了淮河中上游洪水频率的演变规律,分析基于平稳性和非平稳性条件下的洪水发生强度及洪涝灾害所带来的影响.研究发现:潢川、横排头和蚌埠站点未发生明显变异,其余6个站点发生均值或方差变异,变异时间主要集中在2000年左右.淮河流域的最优拟合分布函数是Weibull;班台、蒋家集和横排头站适宜于非平稳性模型,其余站点选择平稳性模型.各站点非平稳性条件下10年和20年一遇设计流量值与平稳性条件下皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布设计流量值相差不大,但30年一遇、50年一遇和100年一遇的设计流量相差逐渐变大.横排头站和蚌埠站洪水放大因子随着时间增加呈上升趋势且大于1,百年一遇重现期不足80年.各站点年最大洪峰流量与淮河流域、安徽省水灾面积通过了95%或99%的显著性检验.  相似文献   

Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales          下载免费PDF全文

Xixi Wang  Xiaomin Yang  Tingxi Liu  Fengling Li  Ruizhong Gao  Limin Duan  Yanyun Luo 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5547-5560

The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

黄河干流头道拐河段凌汛期小流量过程变化及其影响因素研究     

全栋  李超  路新川  史小红  杨朝霞 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):620-628

黄河干流内蒙古段河道冬季流凌封河期， 河道水量除一部分转化为冰量外， 很大一部分转化为槽蓄水量而贮存在河道中， 导致下游头道拐河段出现小流量过程， 上游河道流量转化为槽蓄水量和贮存的冰量越大， 小流量持续时间越长， 开河期发生凌汛洪水风险越高。通过对1998 - 2016年头道拐站凌讯期流量变化过程分析， 重新界定了小流量上限阈值为330 m³·s^-1， 并且以此值为标准进行小流量过程研究， 分别采用R/S极差分析法、 Fourier变换分析法对近年来小流量过程变化特征进行分析； 结合非线性概率Logit模型和Probit模型对小流量过程的影响因素进行讨论。结果表明： 小流量持续天数变化呈现缩短趋势； 同时， 小流量过程与上游相对来水之间变化关系显著且过程同步， 而滞后于河道槽蓄水量变化过程； 通过Logit模型和Probit模型分析各影响因素变化时相应小流量持续时间变化的响应概率大小， 明确河道冰流量是小流量过程第一影响因素， 气温条件是小流量过程的决定因素， 首封位置和相对来水量是小流量过程重要影响因素。  相似文献